Foreign investors welcomed Nigeria’s recent macroeconomic reforms but flagged persistent concerns about oil price volatility, capital repatriation risks, and high transaction costs during a private investor forum hosted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) at the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York on April 17, 2025.

The event, themed “The Nigeria Investment Agenda: Pathways for Growth & Global Partnerships,” was held in collaboration with NGX Group, J.P. Morgan and AVCA.

It attracted representatives from top global financial institutions, including Citi, JPMorgan Chase, Standard Chartered, and Jadara Capital Partners.

Although the CBN’s reform agenda was broadly acknowledged as a step in the right direction, foreign investors made it clear that sustained investor confidence will depend on Nigeria’s ability to manage key structural and external risks, especially oil market volatility.

Investors welcomed reforms but flagged oil risks 

Joyce Chang, Chair of Global Research at JPMorgan Chase, commended Nigeria for making progress on long-standing structural issues, including the removal of fuel subsidies and FX liberalisation.

However, she noted that the global environment had changed significantly, citing U.S. tariff hikes and a higher risk of recession.

“We’re now dealing with a potential 3% of GDP tax effect from recent U.S. tariffs,” Chang said. “Nigeria has made strides, but oil price volatility remains a key risk.” 

JPMorgan now places the probability of a U.S. recession at 60%, up from 40% before the new tariffs were announced.

Oil prices, a key source of Nigerian revenue, are expected to fall into the $50s range by 2026. This dynamic, Chang said, introduces macroeconomic fragility that investors must price in.

Source: Nairametrics